{"id":1537,"date":"2023-06-08T14:08:29","date_gmt":"2023-06-08T20:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/?p=1537"},"modified":"2023-09-07T16:26:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-07T22:26:22","slug":"shot-of-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/shot-of-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Shot of the year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It&#8217;s not clear what &#8220;shot of the year&#8221; means, but let&#8217;s be clear: I have not watched every shot thrown in the curling world this year. What I have done is interrogated my <a href=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/shot_log_events\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">shot database<\/a>, found the made shots that were estimated to be the most difficult, tracked them down on video, if possible, and made a totally arbitrary decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A great shot is really in the eye of the beholder, but for this beholder, greatness is only a starting point. A shot that unlocks interesting points of discussion is a bonus. And it helps if it&#8217;s something few people have seen. So <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=cWSqWpZreyg\" target=\"_blank\">Nik Edin&#8217;s spinner<\/a> is not under consideration. (Plus, Edin lost that game and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0GxYF9lieQk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">I want winners<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My choice took place in Draw 3 of the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2023_World_Junior_Curling_Championships\" target=\"_blank\">Men&#8217;s World Junior Championships<\/a> in the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/maps\/2hopVqpzqq2G43sFA\" target=\"_blank\">Bundesst\u00fctzpunkt Arena<\/a> in F\u00fcssen, Germany. This was a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/shot_summary\/207\/11666\" target=\"_blank\">doozy of a game<\/a> between Canada and Switzerland that would go to an extra end after Canadian skip Landan Rooney converts a sick angle raise for two on his last shot in the 10th. (The video of this game is <a href=\"https:\/\/watch.recast.tv\/video\/6B9X4\">available<\/a> on Recast for one U.S. dollar, but I can hardly recommend it as the video is nearly unwatchable due to frequent glitches.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The extra end is almost a mirror image of the 10th, with several rocks in play from the get-go. Canada puts two guards on the center-line and real curling ensues as both teams play to the middle of the house. Hooray for the no-tick rule!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Switzerland spends the next few shots narrowly missing double peels. On their third&#8217;s last shot, Jan Iseli misses a heavy draw in an attempt to move a Canadian stone off the button. Rooney guards on his first and Switzerland&#8217;s fourth, Philipp H\u00f6sli tries to tap his stones in the house to set up some options on his last shot. Canada, playing red, is still shot and faced with this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM-875x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1539\" width=\"302\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM-875x1024.png 875w, https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM-256x300.png 256w, https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM-768x899.png 768w, https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM-1312x1536.png 1312w, https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-04-at-6.49.43-PM.png 1640w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 302px) 100vw, 302px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Switzerland currently has two ways to move the red stone off the button and get the win. Either play the thin angle raise on the right-most yellow, or run back the left-most red guard onto a yellow-yellow combination. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada has a lot of time to discuss their final shot. Recognizing that they can&#8217;t guard both of Switzerland&#8217;s options, the team discusses hitting the right-most yellow and rolling towards the center-line. This would take away the angle raise on the right and possibly disturb the angles enough for the run-back on the left to take away that shot as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After two minutes and 40 seconds of discussion, including a timeout, Canada appears to be committed to the shot. But then this happens:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video controls src=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/trippy.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s Canada&#8217;s third, Scott Mitchell, tripping over the guard near the hog line he threw just a few minutes ago. We&#8217;ve all done it, but what a time for an extra layer of drama. A technical time-out lasts for about a minute as Mitchell and Iseli try to figure out whether the stone was moved or not. It was, but Iseli is good with it as is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But when we return to play, Rooney has changed his mind and decided to guard the angle-raise, daring H\u00f6sli to make the runback. And since this is the shot of the year, you know what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video controls src=\"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/hosli.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, that&#8217;s a neat shot. I mean, we could find better ones, but this shot has a lot more to ponder than your standard double runback or whatever you want call it. If Kevin Koe or Bruce Mouat makes this shot, I don&#8217;t find it too interesting, but these are juniors, and this shot was pretty important at the time, moving Switzerland to 3-0 in pool play. And there&#8217;s some interesting stuff to unpack here, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guards are good but not <em>that<\/em> good<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would seem that throwing a guard on your final shot, as Canada did, would be an indication you are in a favorable position. But it&#8217;s not as favorable as you might think. I have 845 men&#8217;s games in my database where the game was tied in the final end. In those games, there was a guard attempt on non-hammer&#8217;s last shot in just 68 (8.0%) of them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of those, the non-hammer team went 33-35 (48.5%). So in a relative sense, non-hammer is in a much better position than when they started the end. But also, the average situation for non-hammer after a guard attempt is not even a coin flip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of those guard attempts result in a more favorable situation than the overall numbers suggest, but of course some have to be less favorable, as well. If you are guarding in big-time curling on your last shot, you better have investigated all the other options, because often times, guarding isn&#8217;t great. Interestingly, in the tenth end, Philip H\u00f6sli tried guards on Switzerland&#8217;s last two shots only to have Canada score 2 and force the extra end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Some guards are useless<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now let&#8217;s get provocative. Here&#8217;s an interesting fact: If you have a choice of guarding between two equally likely shots, then the guard is useless. It sounds wild, but I will fight you over this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You&#8217;re only counter can be that two shots are never truly equal. And that&#8217;s true, but work with me. If you had perfect knowledge and knew your opponent&#8217;s two options were exactly the same, then the guard would be useless. In fact, if you want to get really contrarian, a guard just gives the opposition clarity. Especially when there&#8217;s a time crunch &#8211; and Switzerland had about a minute on the clock for their last shot &#8211; clarity might be helpful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m not experienced enough to have a strong opinion on whether the angle-raise or the double-runback would have been easier for Switzerland, but Team Canada didn&#8217;t know, either. Mitchell thinks the runback is easier, while Rooney eventually chooses to guard the raise. (Personally, I&#8217;d think the raise was easier.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, nobody is going to throw it away in this situation. In my shot log database, I have 1,695 cases of a game being tied in the final end (men&#8217;s or women&#8217;s), and in none of those cases did non-hammer throw it through on their last. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s not surprising that it hasn&#8217;t happened. While some guards are nearly useless, they rarely hurt anything. Still, I await the game where the circumstances align and a bold pioneer decides to throw it away on shot 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Butterfly_effect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Butterfly effect<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I wonder what would have happened if that guard hadn&#8217;t been accidentally bumped by Mitchell before Canada&#8217;s final shot. Canada was getting ready to commit to the hit-and-roll and something changed during the technical timeout. Rooney may have not talked himself into the guard without the extra time. The hit-and-roll may or may not have worked, but we&#8217;ll never know because of a random unrelated event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s also interesting that the kicked guard was moved to give H\u00f6sli a bit more room to make the runback. The shot would have still been there anyway, but H\u00f6sli might have needed to go a bit wider to make it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of the shot chosen by Canada, H\u00f6sli still had to make a difficult shot. If he misses, none of this other stuff matters and I&#8217;m not even aware the game happened. So kudos to <meta charset=\"utf-8\">Philipp H\u00f6sli for making one of the best shots of the year. His shot didn&#8217;t achieve the fame of Edin&#8217;s spinner, but it was a lot more interesting to talk about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s not clear what &#8220;shot of the year&#8221; means, but let&#8217;s be clear: I have not watched every shot thrown in the curling world this year. What I have done is interrogated my shot database, found the made shots that were estimated to be the most difficult, tracked them down on video, if possible, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1537"}],"version-history":[{"count":33,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1647,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537\/revisions\/1647"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/doubletakeout.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}