Not much time for me this week so I’ll just leave you with some probability tables based on the latest ratings for the first slam of the season, the Masters. (Naming the slams after golf tournaments is my least favorite thing about the slams, BTW.) It’s a triple-knockout format leading to an 8-team playoff.
Here are the numbers for the women:
Rk Rating Team Playoffs Title CB odds 1 11.44 Tirinzoni 83.1% 19.0% +675 2 11.33 Einarson 79.6 15.2 +550 3 11.31 Homan 81.3 14.6 +800 4 11.20 Kovaleva 72.3 11.7 +1150 6 11.10 Hasselborg 74.4 10.4 +650 5 11.12 Fleury 74.6 9.9 +575 7 10.97 Fujisawa 62.9 6.6 +900 8 10.72 Jones 53.0 3.4 +900 9 10.71 Peterson 52.9 3.3 +1600 10 10.71 E Kim 46.2 3.2 +2000 15 10.33 M Kim 30.6 1.0 +2000 20 10.20 Gim 22.5 0.5 +3500 27 9.95 Yoshimura 19.0 0.4 +5000 30 9.92 Rocque 16.5 0.3 +3500 29 9.93 Wranå 14.0 0.3 +5000 31 9.92 Koana 17.1 0.2 +10000
The CB odds column is the odds posted for each team at coolbet.com as of 7PM Monday night. The biggest value here is on Team Tirinzoni, followed by Team Homan and Team Kovaleva.
Now the men’s side:
Rk Rating Team Playoffs Title CB odds 1 11.59 Mouat 86.6% 23.6% +400 2 11.54 Gushue 84.9 20.8 +800 3 11.32 Jacobs 79.7 14.2 +400 4 11.05 Edin 70.4 8.4 +700 5 11.01 De Cruz 63.0 6.8 +1500 6 10.94 Koe 59.4 5.7 +700 7 10.87 Bottcher 60.3 5.4 +900 8 10.86 Dunstone 53.9 4.8 +2000 10 10.73 Whyte 46.4 3.4 +3500 11 10.65 McEwen 45.0 2.9 +2000 13 10.50 Schwaller 39.7 1.8 +3500 16 10.20 Epping 25.7 0.7 +1800 18 10.18 Waddell 25.7 0.6 +5000 19 10.17 Ruohonen 20.6 0.5 +10000 24 10.03 Gunnlaugson 19.4 0.3 +5000 22 10.10 Matsumura 19.4 0.3 +10000
There is some small value in King Bruce Mouat, but the real value is in Team Gushue. Gushue’s played in only one event this season, but won it without a loss. And the field was pretty decent, too. He beat two teams in this field and Glenn Howard, the best team not at the Masters.
If I could legally bet on such things and had adequate funding, I’d put a million dollars on Homan and Gushue and $100,000 on Ross Whyte, who has decent value as a long-shot and has played quite well this season, going 7-5 against this field.
