Archive

2021.09.14

Coward’s curling

One of my favorite discoveries from shot data is that when teams tried a draw (as opposed to a guard) on the first shot of the game in the 2021 men’s worlds, they went 4-32 (11.1%). When teams tried to throw a guard on the first shot, they went 29-32 (47.5%). It’s pretty neat when […]

2021.09.08

Karrick Martin loves in-turns

Anyone who’s watched a broadcast of a major curling event has been confronted with shot percentages. And if you’re a nerd like me, you’ve considered better ways to measure a player’s performance. But I’m going to keep it positive here and note that I am thankful for any data that goes beyond points scored. On […]

2021.09.02

True win probability

Knowing one’s exact win probability at any stage of a curling game is not possible. However, it can be estimated using the past results from similar cases. If you’re up 2 with 6 ends to go with hammer, the past can inform us about your future. In the history of curling there have been tens […]

2021.08.26

We’re back!

Summer is ending and curling is back. And hey, it looks like curling season will be closer to normal. I think it’s wishful thinking to expect total normalcy. On the one hand, last week’s Baden Masters returned to a traditional 20-team field. On the other hand, none of the Scottish teams, including world #1 Bruce […]

2021.05.11

26: Women’s worlds review

The Women’s Worlds are done and congratulations to the Swiss for winning it all. (I imagine Melanie Barbezat reading this and being like “Gee, thanks Ken. That means a lot.”) The Swiss were clearly the best team over the 12 days of Worlds but they weren’t the best team on Sunday. I kind of like […]

2021.05.04

25: Exploring shot data

Every sport has some form of a box score which provides a summary of a game’s statistics. Curling doesn’t exactly have a box score, but for the big events, the foundational data is there. The shot data recorded by scorers is subject to some personal judgment, but even so, it’s actually a decent starting point […]

2021.04.29

24: Women’s worlds preview

It’s one more go for the curling bubble. This time it’s the World Women’s Curling Championships. It runs from Friday, April 30 to Sunday, May 9. If you’re the sentimental type, soak it in. We hope it’s the last major event without fans for a long time. The format: There are 14 teams which will […]

2021.04.19

23: Players Championship Preview

So we’re feeling pretty good after hitting Bruce Mouat’s win at +550 in the Champions Cup. If I could legally bet on these things, that would have paid for a nice steak dinner. That’s how you get back on the horse. There is no real need to preview the Players Championship as it has the […]

2021.04.14

22: Champions Cup preview

The Humpty’s Champions Cup begins in a few hours and since there are betting lines posted for this event, I need to get some picks on the record. Format: Two pools of six teams lead to a playoff featuring the top six records overall. In a twist, each pool is not playing a complete round-robin […]

2021.03.31

21: 2021 Men’s Worlds preview

It’s another world-class event at the Markin McPhail Centre in Calgary. This time it’s the Men’s World Championships which will run from Friday, April 2 to Sunday, April 11. Let’s do a preview. The format: There are 14 teams which will play a full round robin. The top six make the single-elimination playoffs. At stake: […]

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