2021 GSOC Masters preview

Not much time for me this week so I’ll just leave you with some probability tables based on the latest ratings for the first slam of the season, the Masters. (Naming the slams after golf tournaments is my least favorite thing about the slams, BTW.) It’s a triple-knockout format leading to an 8-team playoff.

Here are the numbers for the women:

Rk  Rating  Team      Playoffs Title  CB odds
 1  11.44   Tirinzoni   83.1%  19.0%    +675
 2  11.33   Einarson    79.6   15.2     +550
 3  11.31   Homan       81.3   14.6     +800
 4  11.20   Kovaleva    72.3   11.7    +1150
 6  11.10   Hasselborg  74.4   10.4     +650
 5  11.12   Fleury      74.6    9.9     +575
 7  10.97   Fujisawa    62.9    6.6     +900
 8  10.72   Jones       53.0    3.4     +900
 9  10.71   Peterson    52.9    3.3    +1600 
10  10.71   E Kim       46.2    3.2    +2000
15  10.33   M Kim       30.6    1.0    +2000
20  10.20   Gim         22.5    0.5    +3500
27   9.95   Yoshimura   19.0    0.4    +5000
30   9.92   Rocque      16.5    0.3    +3500
29   9.93   Wranå       14.0    0.3    +5000
31   9.92   Koana       17.1    0.2   +10000 

The CB odds column is the odds posted for each team at coolbet.com as of 7PM Monday night. The biggest value here is on Team Tirinzoni, followed by Team Homan and Team Kovaleva.

Now the men’s side:

Rk  Rating  Team       Playoffs Title  CB odds
 1  11.59   Mouat        86.6%  23.6%    +400
 2  11.54   Gushue       84.9   20.8     +800
 3  11.32   Jacobs       79.7   14.2     +400
 4  11.05   Edin         70.4    8.4     +700
 5  11.01   De Cruz      63.0    6.8    +1500
 6  10.94   Koe          59.4    5.7     +700
 7  10.87   Bottcher     60.3    5.4     +900
 8  10.86   Dunstone     53.9    4.8    +2000
10  10.73   Whyte        46.4    3.4    +3500
11  10.65   McEwen       45.0    2.9    +2000
13  10.50   Schwaller    39.7    1.8    +3500
16  10.20   Epping       25.7    0.7    +1800
18  10.18   Waddell      25.7    0.6    +5000
19  10.17   Ruohonen     20.6    0.5   +10000
24  10.03   Gunnlaugson  19.4    0.3    +5000
22  10.10   Matsumura    19.4    0.3   +10000

There is some small value in King Bruce Mouat, but the real value is in Team Gushue. Gushue’s played in only one event this season, but won it without a loss. And the field was pretty decent, too. He beat two teams in this field and Glenn Howard, the best team not at the Masters.

If I could legally bet on such things and had adequate funding, I’d put a million dollars on Homan and Gushue and $100,000 on Ross Whyte, who has decent value as a long-shot and has played quite well this season, going 7-5 against this field.