Knowing one’s exact win probability at any stage of a curling game is not possible. However, it can be estimated using the past results from similar cases. If you’re up 2 with 6 ends to go with hammer, the past can inform us about your future. In the history of curling there have been tens […]
Summer is ending and curling is back. And hey, it looks like curling season will be closer to normal. I think it’s wishful thinking to expect total normalcy. On the one hand, last week’s Baden Masters returned to a traditional 20-team field. On the other hand, none of the Scottish teams, including world #1 Bruce […]
The Women’s Worlds are done and congratulations to the Swiss for winning it all. (I imagine Melanie Barbezat reading this and being like “Gee, thanks Ken. That means a lot.”) The Swiss were clearly the best team over the 12 days of Worlds but they weren’t the best team on Sunday. I kind of like […]
Every sport has some form of a box score which provides a summary of a game’s statistics. Curling doesn’t exactly have a box score, but for the big events, the foundational data is there. The shot data recorded by scorers is subject to some personal judgment, but even so, it’s actually a decent starting point […]
It’s one more go for the curling bubble. This time it’s the World Women’s Curling Championships. It runs from Friday, April 30 to Sunday, May 9. If you’re the sentimental type, soak it in. We hope it’s the last major event without fans for a long time. The format: There are 14 teams which will […]
So we’re feeling pretty good after hitting Bruce Mouat’s win at +550 in the Champions Cup. If I could legally bet on these things, that would have paid for a nice steak dinner. That’s how you get back on the horse. There is no real need to preview the Players Championship as it has the […]
The Humpty’s Champions Cup begins in a few hours and since there are betting lines posted for this event, I need to get some picks on the record. Format: Two pools of six teams lead to a playoff featuring the top six records overall. In a twist, each pool is not playing a complete round-robin […]
It’s another world-class event at the Markin McPhail Centre in Calgary. This time it’s the Men’s World Championships which will run from Friday, April 2 to Sunday, April 11. Let’s do a preview. The format: There are 14 teams which will play a full round robin. The top six make the single-elimination playoffs. At stake: […]
Note: I will not be previewing the Canadian mixed doubles championships. I dabbled with mixed doubles ratings a few months ago, but really they need to be individual ratings and not team ratings given that most players don’t exist on permanent teams. Maybe that’s a project for a rainy summer day. The Brier is in […]
The Brier is starting on Friday, so it’s time for another Monte Carlo-driven preview. But first, let’s look back on our work for the Scotties. I didn’t do bad. I mean, it was a fairly simple exercise. Einarson and Homan were clearly the two best teams in Canada when the world shut down and they […]
