Sask Scotties Preview

2022.01.04

I probably should just have a running post with provincial previews. Note to self for the future. But one can make the case the this event deserves its own space. After boldly declaring that the Alberta women’s provincials would be the most wide open provincial event, I am proven wrong a few days later. This was sheer ignorance on my part, as early in the season I was seriously thinking about Sask women’s curling being highly intriguing. One you saw the early results from new versions of teams Carey and Silvernagle, you got an indication that they weren’t that much better than the best non-travelling teams of the province. You had to know that would make for mayhem in the provincials.

The Sask Scotties features 12 of 13-highest rated teams in Saskatchewan (sorry, Mandy Selzer), all rated between #25 and #105. It’s a triple-knockout format with a four team page playoff. Chelsea Carey is the favorite with a mere 26.6% chance of winning. Half of the field has at least a 5% chance (rounding up) of winning. That feels like a good place to draw the line for realistic winners, which would include: Carey, Amber Holland (22.4%), Penny Barker (19.4%), Robyn Silvernagle (13.8%), Sherry Anderson (9.4%), and Ashley Howard (4.7%). And Ashley Howard is the executive director of CurlSask so depending on her dictatorial instincts, she could shut down the event and declare herself the winner in a military-aided coup. Can’t rule it out.

Collectively, the teams are 1-11 against the Double Takeout top 10, with Carey’s win over Kerry Einarson back in mid-September being the only win. So whoever wins would do well just to make the Championship Pool of the Scotties. But that’s not really the point of this week. This is just good competitive curling to crown a provincial champ. Every game will be contested.

This event starts Wednesday evening, with a champion crowned Sunday afternoon. Theoretically, games will streamed on the CurlSask YouTube channel. Check your local listings.

The pre-event probabilities are below, but you can always find them on the forecasts page as well.

 Rk  Rating Team       Playoff Title 
 25  10.00  Carey       72.4%  26.6%
 32   9.87  Holland     68.9   22.4
 34   9.76  Barker      66.1   19.4
 39   9.65  Silvernagle 55.8   13.8
 41   9.59  Anderson    44.4    9.4
 50   9.38  Howard      31.6    4.7
 68   9.02  Englot      19.2    1.7
 78   8.85  Mitchell    12.0    0.7
 84   8.74  Schneider   11.4    0.6
 97   8.52  Barber       6.7    0.2
 95   8.54  Wisniewski   6.3    0.2
105   8.44  Ellingson    5.2    0.1

User comments
  1. Rowen Bell · 2022.01.06 · 8:29 am

    With the Ontario women’s event having been cancelled, and with CurlOnt scheduled to anoint a representative tomorrow, it would be helpful to see what your estimated title chances for the now-cancelled event would have been. Put differently – how prohibitive a favorite was Homan?

    1. kenpom · 2022.01.07 · 10:23 pm

      Probably not as much as you would think. Homan is 7th, Harrison 20th and Duncan 23rd. I’d guess Team Homan was borderline 50/50 to win. They have had a rough season.

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