Women’s worlds preview


This is a really quick outline of the women’s worlds which starts in Prince George on Saturday. What with being an Olympic year, the field is a little watered down. The U.S., Scotland, and Japan are not sending their best teams. Theoretically, Canada wouldn’t be sending its best team either, but with Jennifer Jones pulling the upset at the Olympic trials, Team Einarson heads to worlds as the Scotties’ winner and that might be Canada’s best team. (It is definitely Canada’s best team at the moment since both Team Jones and Team Fleury have announced they’re breaking up.)

Then there’s the issue of Russia being banned from the event, meaning another top ten team, Team Kovaleva, will not be playing. Even had they not been banned, it’s not clear how one travels from Moscow to Prince George at this point, so I’m not sure how they could have played.

The end result is that we have a very top-heavy field. Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and South Korea are your realistic contenders for the gold. Those are the only teams that have better than a 50% chance of making the six-team playoff round, and their chances are well over 50%. But the six-team playoff leaves room for at least two teams from the JV portion of the field. And when you get into the playoffs, anything is possible, right? Well, yes and no. There’s only about a one-in-eight chance a team outside the top four wins this event.

Rk  Rating  Team           Playoff Title 
 1  11.37   Tirinzoni   SUI  96.8   30.1  
 3  11.11   Hasselborg  SWE  93.2   22.4  
 5  11.10   Einarson    CAN  93.0   22.1  
 9  10.74   Kim         KOR  82.6   13.6  
24  10.00   Morrison    SCO  43.7    2.5  
25  10.00   Jentsch     GER  43.5    2.5  
26   9.97   Christensen USA  41.7    2.3  
27   9.95   Kitazawa    JPN  40.4    2.2  
29   9.91   Dupont      DEN  38.3    1.9  
60   9.14   Yildiz      TUR   7.9    0.1  
61   9.14   Constantini ITA   7.8    0.1  
63   9.09   Rørvik      NOR   6.8    0.08  
     8.93   Baudyšová   CZE   4.4    0.04

Odds Oddities: The top-heavy field doesn’t lend itself to finding any value in posted odds, and furthermore, there aren’t many places offering odds on this event anyway. The only value is in Korea to win (at either +700 at Coolbet or especially, +900 at Sports Interaction).